The storm season 2008/9.  Chases, photos and stuff!

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Storm season 2008/09


(Hector convection over the Tiwi Islands 4 October 08) 

 



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2008/09 storm chase blog info/reports.

 

Season ends!  The season for Darwin ended fairly abruptly but I did manage to get some shots of the final storm of the season at about 4am in the morning!  There were several weak cells pushing along the NE coast and I had to wait for over an hour for one particular storm to get organized and close enough to me.  It did not disappoint, albeit brief, and gave me some nice close strikes. 

In summary for the 2008/9 season it was fairly good.  Some frustrating weeks without storms on my days off and then they returned when I returned to work - I hate that!  No cyclones this year and a couple of lows passed us by.  There were some memorable storm chases and I managed some excellent photos again.  The upcoming season for 2009/10 will be much more exciting with the advent of live streaming to TVN on severe weather events and any cyclones...until then I'll be changing and repairing pages to make them more uniform and some other ideas to implement. 

Here's some images from the last storm of the Darwin season..

 

 

 

 

 

Storms have been hit and miss of late but we have had two days of severe warned storms during March 23-25.  Late inland heating and moisture infeed caused these storms to grow considerably.  The sounding for these days indicated strong downdrafts and it held true as the cap broke late afternoon and released all that energy.  Here's a few pics from some of the action during the past weeks.  Not much on the cards for the coming days as a dominant high pressure cell pushes dry winds into the NT.  A low is north of Darwin and is expected to deepen slightly, and this will encourage a bit of shower and storm activity next week.  With the season coming to a close soon it will be a sudden end to anything resembling cloud cover!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Storms in Darwin March 16/17.  

Headed out not so much for a chase but a 'photographic opportunity' and caught this image as the front quickly rolled in.  Winds were gusting to around 70-80k/mh - the airport here recorded 100km/h winds.  This bolt was around 250 metres away hitting the ocean and just after this shot a huge strike hit the ocean no less than 75 metres from me - it was an incredible sight! I'm just angry I did not get that one! 

A transformer was obliterated about 20 minutes later as the storm rolled through Darwin, I could see this huge green hue in the foreground and some city lights disappeared right then!  Darwin will have a bit of a break from storms as a high pressure area dominates the country and a developing tropical low/cyclone once again off the Queensland coast in the Coral sea takes our weather again.

 

 


Severe storms lash Eyre Peninsular in South Australia  Wednesday 11 March '09 producing hail, strong winds and a land spout (which is a 'tornado', but without the mesocyclone...)

Here's the satellite & radar loops and news report with photo!

http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.html?region=sa&loop=yes&images=&allday=&start=200903110033&stop=200903112333#nav

http://radar.strikeone.net.au/?fuseaction=loops.main&radar=461&numberofImages=34&dateStart=1236723600&dateFinish=1236763200

images..http://blogs.abc.net.au/sa/2009/03/cummins-thunder.html 

As far as Darwin is concerned storms are returning now that TC Hamish off the Queensland coast has now dissipated.  This allows a nice easterly steer to come back to the NT and moisture from the NE to flow back in.  There's been a few storms inland, and one brief one here in Darwin but the next days leading up to the weekend should be ripe!  Winds should be good for decent storms and hopefully the jet will move just a tad further north to assist them.

March 03 2009 

Not a lot of activity abounds in Darwin at the moment.  The weather is deciding what it wants to do of late.  The monsoon is sitting to our north and there's some signs of it ramping up again to the NW as a possible low pressure area develops to the NW of the NT. Our dry season won't start proper until April'ish - so there's always the possibility of cyclone development. 

A low is also possible in the Gulf of Carpentaria as this broad area of low pressure extends right across the NT, models show it moving westward and it's way too early to say what it will do.  Storms have been frequent further inland the last two days, a couple moved over Darwin but with minimal lightning. 

The larger confined strikes are inland and to the NW coastal regions where the storms fire up as they hit the coast.  Most of the CB's have been Congestus and Calvus - which means they get to stages one & two of thunderstorm development but no further. 

With only about 4 to 6 weeks left of the storm season I'm hoping for some decent weather to see the season out.  A cyclone would be nice to chase....updates as they come to hand re decent storms!

February 22 2009:  

Finally the storms returned with a vengence as a tropical low skirts the coastline and was creating storms inland and along the coast.  There were plenty of people out getting photos and I got some pearlers at around 1:30am after work. 

The electrical activity from the storms was something I've not seen for a very long time and now that the monsoon has retreated there's more easterly dry winds to clean up the moisture laden atmosphere and steer these storms back to where they belong!  Chasing has been on the cards again with large convective lines inland. 

Chased yesterday 23rd Feb and whilst we saw some very large towers, one especially emitting large strikes, the line became outflow dominant and was moving too fast for its own good.  But we did manage some neat structure shots and shelf cloud shots. 

Chasing again over the next days as they come inland, but we need some singular type cells to get up and be alone!

 

 

Tropical Cyclone Charlotte is located in the Gulf of Carpentaria and moving easterly towards the NT/QLD border to Cape York.  Models indicate this trend to continue and anyone in these areas should go online to http://www.bom.gov.au for all the updates and track maps. 

Details of Tropical Low at 10:00 pm EST [9:30 pm CST]:































































































































































































































































.Centre located near...... 14.7 degrees South 137.2 degrees East































































































































































































































































.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres































































































































































































































































.Recent movement.......... towards the east northeast at 4 kilometres per hour































































































































































































































































.Wind gusts near centre... 45 kilometres per hour































































































































































































































































.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity































































































































































































































































.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































People between Port McArthur and Thursday Island should consider what action































































































































































































































































they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about































































































































































































































































the actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or































































































































































































































































local State Emergency Service.
































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































As far as storm activity around Darwin it's still scarce with only a few storms embedded in fast moving lines.































































































































The current nor'westerly flow is set to dry out over the next































































































































few days so hopefully some decent activity will be had from all this































































































































mess.
































































































































































































































































 

Dec 08-10 Jan 09... Glut of storm action is an understatement!

 

Storms have been very rare of late.  Since the TC Billy event the monsoon decided to stray south for the winter and leave Darwin without any action!  The trough has been sitting south for over two weeks and caused a lull in the storm activity.  The trough as of 8 Jan 09 is now moving northward once again and strengthening.  There's quite a number of lows attached to the trough inland right along it's length now that it has become more 'horizontal'.  There's a low in the Gulf of Carpentaria to our west which will deepen. It's too early to say whether it remains over water, but models show it moving westerly inland once again.  Many inland areas through the Barkley region are flooded and some communities isolated for some weeks to come.  Most of the low activity has been well south/sou'east and is causing considerable concern now that the monsoon is reforming quickly once again.

Our best chance for storms is from Thursday to Saturday before the monsoon returns by the weekend...it's been a terrible time trying to forecast or nowcast anything as moswt of the convective stuff has been showers with the odd rumble, but nothing like textbook storms everyone expects.  I've had two separate storm enthusiasts up here during December 08 and they got nothing in the way of storm action.  I've now got three more storm enthusiasts here in Darwin and I'm desperately trying to give them all the right hints and tips to get something!  They've been here three times in as many years and missed out on 'our fabulous lightning shows'.  You can't predict these things and with the monsoon it's even harder.


 

TC Billy 16-20 December

TC Billy made landfall last night on the Western Australian coast between Kalumburoo and Wyndham.  It had gained some structure during Thursday and Friday (18-19th) and was classified on Friday afternoon.  It's category was 1-2, so only a small cyclone and was really too close to the coast as far as gaining any significant power.  Peak winds were around 140km/h and rainfall amounts were significant - and still are - with the associated monsoon trough stuck to it.  It's tracking W/SW and there's still the possibility of it moving over water again and regaining some strength, but to date its movement is very slow and it's being monitored. 

It has not affected Darwin at all except for the outer rain bands bringing light to moderate rain with the occasional storm.  Weather today i Darwin is much more A-typical of the monsoon.  Sporadic bursts of heavy downpours with intermittent light to moderate rain all the time.  Not chasing weather unless you like low slung cloud bases with rain and there's not significant winds to really photograph any wild seas.  The next few days or so should see the monsoon take hold more and then it will be several days after that to wait for the atmosphere to settle down and we have a lull in the monsoon, at least some storms will be more visible in cleaner air for me to go after.

Below are some track maps and radar images of the past few days.  

 http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR631.loop.shtml#skip

Doppler wind 20thDec 

Radar loop showing eye wall approaching coast 

 256km wider loop showing cyclonic area

 

 

 

satellite imagery for he past two days 19/20Dec. showing cyclone forming and monsoon over Northern Australia 

 

 

 

Water spouts and land spout/tornado! Increased heavy storm activity is producing regular spouts over Darwin's coastal regions and unbeknown to myself during the 29November chase - I photographed a land spout or possible weak tornado in an aggressive storm.  Waterspout photo courtesy of Nolan Caldwell & my image adjusted to highlight funnel on the left hand side. The monsoon is not far away, it's still gathering momentum but the daytime storms are obviously carrying some vorticity to produce so many spouts this time around.

 

 

December 11 storms

 Storms were moving towards a convergence line east of Adelaide River and other southern rural towns this afternoon.  They were fast moving and entered the line from the NW and NE.  A chase inland was planned but given the decaying nature of the storms and their movement it was decided not to waste fuel and time chasing their tails.  There was a large area of singular cells off-shore which went through Darwin and the surrounding suburbs, so keeping an eye on the storms that made it to landfall without weakening was frustrating.  Three decent storms made it to land and kept alive so I ventured out to grab some images.  These three photos were quick takes without actually chasing per se given that they were fairly close to my home .

 

 

 

 

* MONSOON UPDATE 11 Dec*

There is a weak but maturing monsoon trough forming and a lot of the moisture flow is from the NW at the moment.  There are two embedded lows either end of the trough and the one on the northwestern side of Australia is one the bureau is monitoring.  Increasing thunderstorm activity surrounding the low will have some bearing as the sea surface temps are very favorable for anything to form.  The storms of late are not monsoonal in nature but as a result of dominating moisture/steering winds northward.  Although they may seem monsoonal just because of their off-shore nature, the bureau considers them not to be so. We may expect the monsoon probably within a week or so once it gets itself organized.

November 30 2008 9 hour chase

I had arranged with three other weather nuts to go chasing this day as things were going to explode.  CAPE levels were maintaining a high level of instability in the Darwin rural and inland zones at about 3700-5000j/kg and surface lifted index was ranging from -5 in the mornings to -7 in the late afternoon.  No capping inversions were present and the presence of a trough and broad area of low pressure across the Northern Territory was to provide some fantastic storm action. Wind gusts were reported to be 100km/h back in the city with large storms!

We ended up in Humpty Doo which is a rural town about 20kms from my home and even then we intercepted two large cells which had just become highly active.  Our positions on the highway allowed us to turn off onto another road and face this large storm.  Everyone got some daytime lightning strikes and some were pretty close!

 

 

 

 I took the mother hen approach and advised everyone to at least keep close to the car and when using tripods to keep them low and kneel down to take the photos.  Safety is the key here and I did not want anyone to be the 'tallest' object around! After about half an hour the storm was still strong but another had formed to the west, so we headed further afield.  Two large cells were either side of us and we photographed some wonderful structure and outflow.  Both had huge dark anvils and the day was starting better than we had hoped for. The pic below is of Renate and Thomas, both from Germany who obviously loved what they saw!

 

 

 

After several more shots in the area I decided that we should head about 100km inland to the area most conducive for the big storms given the GFS outlooks. .  Along the way we  were observing large areas of convection and updrafts with Pileus.  We arrived at our inland location but it was under a large storm so we decided to grab a drink and wait for about 20 minutes until it passed.  Another 20km outbound we found a wonderful open area on the highway (which is rare given the bushland!) and I parked the car and we all set up our gear.  Once nightfall came an approaching set of storms were to our west heading  toward us. The lightning was incredible.  We were surrounded 350 degrees and where to point the camera was difficult!  Long multiple CGs from under the storm base and overhead streamers allowed everyone to shout 'whoa!' and get many fine shots. Some strikes seemed like single bolts when viewing them, but when looking at the image photographed it actually showed that most strikes had 3-4 CGs in one flash!

 

 

 

What seemed like a short period in fact turned out to be over three hours watching, observing and photographing one of the best thunderstorm activity I've encountered in a long time.  My chase buddies were over the moon and somehow through luck, location and a bit of knowledge of where to position we managed to avoid the rain and showers and every time we were in between the storms - perfect!   On the drive home a seriously wet squall line managed to overrun us and we drove all the way back to Darwin over 100km at snails pace due to heavy rain and wind and constant lightning - most striking the sides of the road near the car!  I've included the radar loop for you to view....we were positioned each time between the main larger storms before that massive squall line hit. Berrimah radar loop

 

I've included a series of photos in the INSANE PHOTOS page, so check that out - some monster strikes included there.

I'll post another storm chase report tomorrow 4th Dec from a great lightning show over Darwin harbour!

 ***********

Storms are still rampant around the Darwin and rural areas as the season really gets into gear.  Today Tuesday 16 Nov had storms completely surrounding Darwin and it's due to the presence of a low in the Kimberley region, a trough extending right through WA,NT and Qld.  The monsoon trough is still active in the waters north of Darwin and models show it should extend southward by xmas - hence whispers of a cyclone prior xmas.  Much depends on long range models, but there is already a cyclone warning for the Cocos Islands off the Western Australian coast.  It's below cyclone intensity at 1002hpa, but is forecast to become a Cat2 as it tracks S/SE.  A link to the WA tropical cyclone centre is here so you can bookmark it and keep an eye on its progress. http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/

 

Severe warned storm 11 November - this massive storm rolled through the rural areas behind Darwin this afternoon and I managed to get some nice structure shots before heading to work.  It was severe warned around 5pm and carried some damaging winds with it.

 

 

 

November 10:  Storms alive!

Finally there's something to add to the blog.  Ironically it was the same time last year that we had decent storms at night..must be deja vu.  Storms formed from around midnight 9Nov and continued right through until around 6am off the coast.  I finished work around midnight and it was just a perfect set up for me.  I did not have to chase at all and simply located myself around the corner from my home in Durack and waited!  An immature storm I had been watching whilst driving home from work really got firing up an outflow got another cell firing next to it. 

The storms were less than 6 km away - which proved fantastic, yet a little dangerous if there were positive strikes.  As it happened there were - so taking shots from inside the car was in order.  I had photographed the single storm for about an hour and a half and then storms from inland pushed toward the coast next to me - why go home...shoot some more from the other direction! I got some nice 'orange' positive strikes from this third storm so I'll post them here with a sample of two huge bolts.  Darwin is forecast storms all week, so I reckon they can come at midnight anytime after finishing work again!

 

 

November 7 :  Gusty storms for the weekend is on the cards which means they'll have some kick to them.  I would suspect they'll turn up late afternoon and one can hope they'll arrive even later for some nighttime activity. A trough is pushing northwards to the base of the Top End which is ideal.  Storms should become more regular as the weeks go by as the build up period is almost over before the monsoon troughs start to appear to our north.

 

November 5 2008 :  Things have been very quiet of late.  Weather obs are a lot more favorable this week for something to happen.  A broad area of low pressure reaches right across the NT and a low is moving NE to E over the next day or two which should help generate some storms.  Whether they come into Darwin itself is another thing, but definitely something in the inland areas. 

The sounding (or atmospheric trace) is good for convection today, although there's only moderate lapse rates below 500mb which means that any updrafts for the storms will be average as they tend to warm a little above that.  Everything else is good with nice moisture flow and some speed shear with the steering winds.  The dry air in the middle sections of the atmosphere won't hurt that much as storms require some drying so that the towers can grow and not allow the parcels of air to become saturated with moisture which could weaken them considerably. Satellite images from yesterday afternoon showed some big storms in the western parts of the NT, if you were out along the harbour last night you may have seen the storm in question with some active lightning. The next few days should get me out of the house if conditions prevail....!

**** 

October 28:  Looks like storms returning over the weekend with inland stuff on Friday.  Moisture is returning with the aid of another low pressure area in the Kimberley region in Western Australia.  I'll be checking out the models and obs during the week to get the best location to chase to - November is usually good for storms now that the transition period is settling down.

October 24.  Nothing at all happening unless you like fine, sunny 37C days and strong winds! 


Massive storm propagated from inland areas and converged with another large storm to the west of Darwin late afternoon.  Unfortunately I worked this night and he observations were astounding!  A massive shelf cloud structure blanketed the rural areas of Darwin as it approached and gusts to 55kts were experienced.  Dangerous lightning accompanied the storm and several areas were blacked out.  I know our workplace sustained several surges until the generators kicked in.  Managed a few shots before Darwin got slammed!  The boiling convection was insane! Possibly a few more storms late in the evening for today and Friday 16th and then things quieten down for a few more days as instability reduces.

 

Above photo you can see the shelf structure just beginning to form on the LHS 

 

October 13/14 /15Three days of instability had proved good for storms to form inland and in Darwin.  Another trough of low pressure reaching into the Top End produced some very photogenic daytime storms.  There had been early morning storms but nothing of substance to get any decent shots due to infrequent CG action.  Early this morning (12:30am to 3:30am 15th) saw a massive line of storms move through Darwin.  There were a few showers about during the day and afternoon, but this cleared .  During the night storms had reformed well inland and by the time they reached Darwin the storms dumped over 80mm of rain.  I was out chasing for three hours with no luck at all with photos.  Low cloud, fast movement, constant intra-cloud lightning hampered chances to get CG strikes.  The rain does not bother me in the car trying to get a shot, I've got tricks to overcome that!

There was so much lightning that it was proving difficult to locate or know which lightning was which - constantly changing positions proved worse as the strikes seemed to come from each area as soon as I moved ! Storms are forecast again tonight with a similar scenario.  I'm going to change my battle plan as far as chasing these lines from now on.  These lines can prove rewarding, but you have to approach the chase with a different strategy to nail the nice strikes.  The large amount of sheet lightning is the killer - very hard to nail a decent photo!

Here's a pic from the previous day's storm with nice a rainbow

 

 

October 12 2008:  A few days of the normal hot, sticky weather until another trough develops this week.  October is regarded as the worst month for extreme heat and humidity as it's the month of real transition between the dry and wet seasons.  Average daytime temps in Darwin of late have been hovering between 35-37 which is ridiculous!  Tues/wed and possibly Thursday are showing signs of storm activity again.  An inland low pressure area combined with another trough line should create some activity.  The models are looking good for convergence once again from surface winds a little closer to Darwin. 

 

 

October 9 2008:   The weather bureau had not predicted storms this afternoon, but we've just had one large storm finish and there's several (4) building in the rural areas behind my home. Goes to show that the atmosphere does what it likes! Currently it's 4pm and they are looking okay so it's time to go out and check on them personally.  Hopefully I'll have some more photos for you.

 

 

October 7  2008CHASE NIGHT!  Two large thunderstorms formed to the west, sou'west of Darwin this afternoon after the dreaded lid on the atmosphere broke finally.  Spectacular structure and size and things got better.  I went out to get some images of the storms and then returned home to check some data and radar.  A large storm had developed about 150km from Darwin and was rapidly creating some fuel for a line of storms to form in that area.  This was too good to miss out on so I chased about 210km round trip and positioned myself perfectly between two active thunderstorms producing lightning. Most of the lightning was intra-cloud but there were sporadic bolts eminating from both of them.  I found a nice spot which had them over the top and either side of me and set up. It was a spectacular sight just to watch the frantic lightning crawling between the towers and managed some nice CG pics from a safe distance. Things are still rumbling around the place by the time I got home as more storms are forming inland and moving toward Darwin. It might be a late night!

 

HERE'S MY PROMISED PHOTOS FROM THE CHASE FINALLY!

 

A VEHICLE DROVE BY TO ADD SOME COMPOSITION TO THIS ONE!

 

PRETTY CLOSE BOLT! 

 

 THIS BOLT A LITTLE CLOSER BEHIND A TREE!

 

 TWO MASSIVE STORMS PRIOR TO THAT EVENING'S CHASE.

 

 

October 5 2008:  Just a few showers around today but things are definitely on the positive side for storms to form in the coming days.  Surface moisture is building, a trough is moving across to us from the west and conditions will be favorable finally!  Won't be too long before I have a chance to chase at length and download the photos. Computer models are giving all the right signs which is a relief.

 

October 4  2008:  Storms are set to arrive next week on Monday and Tuesday as a trough moves slightly northward again to Darwin.  A convergence line lies to the west/sou'west of Darwin and flows right through the eastern and southern states of Australia and is generating some excellent storms - albeit not here yet!  Eastern states in New South Wales, South Australia and Alice Springs have been getting some very nice lightning action.  A dry line situation probably helps NSW and they are in for some thunderstorms over the next few days again. I'll be chasing throughout next week 5-19 October extensively to get some photos so keep returning for reports and what I intercepted!  I still have photos of Hector, but my website is giving me grief when trying to attach photos...I'm feverishly working on it.....

Remember to visit Discovery Channel's Storm Chaser home page - it's packed full of info and offers links to all their storm reports, videos, photos and bio's.

http://dsc.discovery.com/tv/storm-chasers/storm-chasers.html 

 


October 3 2008Finally some decent instability and humidity arriving of late.  Some weak convection in the rural areas which produced nothing much - in fact rubbish, but over the Tiwi Islands Hector made a decent appearance with no less than 3 towers.  The front tower had anviled out when I viewed it but was nice and fat, the second tower anviled out twice and showed Pileus cloud on both. The second tower actually displayed two separate updraft cores and was nicely structured.  The third tower was similar but weakened considerably not long afterward.  I have some photos which I'll post today.  A storm is forecast for this coming Monday 7 October for Darwin and historically build up season storms can be severe over the next few months.


September 30:...Not much to say at this time as we're under the influence of easterly winds and a dominating high pressure system down south of Darwin.  This Sat or Monday may hold something further inland as there is a convergence boundary formed by what the computer models show. An eddy (a tropical High pressure cell) is located in the Gulf to our east and that is a worry as it precludes fine weather.  There will be a heat low to the west or southwest of Darwin at this time but no trough it seems will be attached to it.  CAPE levels and the like are okay, but it will depend on how much instability can be gotten from all this. If the convergence line holds then I'll be chasing it down the track as it's proved fruitful for storm initiation in the past early on with low pressure areas in that area.


September 23:  After what has seemed like an eternity Darwin got a taste of storms this evening around 6:30pm as they formed inland.  A trough moved further north today within reach of Darwin and produced enough instability to set things going, the line of storms were more likely stronger inland as they formed a line and moved N/NE. 
Below is a link that shows the radar loop over several frames and how the storms gathered in a line but quickly dissipated once nearing Darwin then only producing some welcome showers.


http://radar.strikeone.net.au/?fuseaction=loops.main&radar=633&numberofImages=40&dateStart=1222150200&dateFinish=1222179000

The storms were lightning active as they approached, but nothing too strong.  Plenty of intracloud lightning and I only saw one CG strike during the hour I was watching and waiting.  I was at my work tea break so no chasing for me this night.  There's no way I would have sat home knowing this was looming. 

A 300km  round trip down the track would have been well worth the effort.  I took a few photos but  experience proved that these were dying out as the moved in and were never going to intensify closer to the city.  Certainly an impressive sight nonetheless, but I'd rather be in the thick of things, so I'm a little disappointed having to work - but it's early days and there's plenty of storm days to come 

I had been in contact with the weather bureau some days prior to tonight and they told me today was probably the best set up for storms, and perhaps tomorrow but after that there's a dry spell for a couple of days.  Should have taken a day off work!

 


Here's the satellite image from around 8:30pmUTC.  You can see one very large storm inland with an overshooting top - and storms forming  in clusters as they move toward the Top End.



September 18:  Captain's log...

Definite positive signs of late with another large splitting storm at Pine Creek about an hour or so drive from Darwin at around 1:30am this morning.  It lasted a little while and there was lightning recorded.  Inland heating is still producing these storms with affects from troughs moving through from Western Australia. 

Today there were some light showers around the place, but nice signs of some convective potential at least.  Hector was well and truly 'up' today also - and will get a photo on the way to work shortly!  Monday may see some more storms in the inland zones due to another trough forming.  The cap is still a little strong but there are some nicely sized towers popping up for shower activity at least.

 

below...Hector storm over the Tiwi Islands raises decently and early!





September 17: Captain's log... A convergence area SE of Darwin around the Pine Creek, Adelaide River inland zones produced some nicely sized storms over the past two days. 

Radar imagery showed large cells clustering into a small line and lasted for over two hours.  Minimal rain amounts but some decent lightning activity.  Yesterday, Monday 15th you could see the intra-cloud flashes in the distance from Darwin Harbour.  They were reddish in colour which gives you a clue as to their distance and a waste of time photographing even with 300mm lens'! - most of it was intra-cloud stuff anyway. 

Another trough is due in the same area later on  Friday or the weekend, so an eye on the set ups will be on the cards and if it looks like firing up  then I'll be heading out that day.  Distance would be around the 200km mark one way, but ya never know what might happen. 

There's still too much dry air in Darwin and the rural areas closer to town, although the soundings (those skew-t graphs I keep talking about) show average CAPE, there's still a strong cap keeping things pent up and by sunset most of the afternoon cloud has burnt away.  Indicators are all favorable for an early start to the storm season - officially the 'wet' starts on October 1, so only a few weeks to go.  I'm primed and ready and the camera is too!


*************

August 28:  Captain's log (!)  With a shifting trough from Western Australia moving through the NT over the last two days there's been some very nice cells popping up inland down past Katherine (290km away) and near Adelaide River (100km away). 

Afternoon 'storms' have provided some moderate to heavy falls and Daly Waters had the luxury of some large lightning producing storms on the 26/27th August.  The bureau has forecast inland showers for the next three days, not surprising given the rise in humidity and temperature!  Even though the temperature has only risen during the daytime around 2C to 34C, the humidity levels have really put some kick in the sun! 

Still early days for storms in Darwin, but if you were adventurous down Katherine way you would be watching with interest as the trough continues to promote convection about two hours drive south.


I'll be updating this page every few days to give you some idea of how the build up changes the temps and weather so much until storms arrive.  Our dry season really does abruptly end at any given day when the weather 'changes' to the more humid conditions. 

It's like someone has flicked a light switch, it's that bad!  The nights are especially humid now, even though it's only the second day of 'higher' humidity.  As I finish work around 1am, there's always a blanket of cloud cover over Darwin - unseen because everyone is asleep, but I can assure you the ceiling fans or air con are running a little faster!  I  can feel the droplets of sweat on my brow even as I type this...must be the build up!                                                             

 

There's been some isolated coastal showers around the northeast coast of the Top End in the last day or two and the humidity is set to rise with daytime temps also rising to 34c.  With a lessor influence by the southern high pressure systems directing dry easterly winds across the NT and the effect of heat lows across the Kimberly region to our west, the moisture content should gradually rise with it. 

We can get a storm in September and more so we can get showers, but this month and October is when the skies become more cloudy as a result.  It's not too far now until the storm season and for me it's just keeping an eye on the region to our north as storms begin their annual build up also.  Tropical activity in this area is a good sign of things to come and it is a precursor for instability reaching us. 

I'm pretty optimistic about this coming season and previous seasons of a neutral ENSO have always proven an early buildup and storm activity.  Still a waiting game, but week by week things change greatly.


Much depends on what the ENSO or El Nino Southern Oscillation climate models have in store for our weather for this season.  To date all models show a neutral phase again for the Northern Territory. 

Whilst we had a weak La Nina period last season (usually brings wetter weather) it has not sustained any development.  If you would like to see the likely changes in the ENSO system and what the weather bureau forecasts for us in the coming months you can go to the link below. 

The information is updated every month or so.


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/